Trump markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase78%
YesNo
No change22%
YesNo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3170%
YesNo
December 3144%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 599%
YesNo
November 694%
YesNo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%chance
YesNo
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
55%chance
YesNo
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance
YesNo
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
4495%
YesNo
455%
YesNo
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3135%
YesNo
November 3019%
YesNo
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro92%
YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez8%
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
US imports Russian diesel by...?
March 3119%
YesNo
January 3118%
YesNo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 202771%
YesNo
November 30, 202769%
YesNo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202643%
YesNo
November 30, 202626%
YesNo
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance
YesNo
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 202742%
YesNo
March 31, 202719%
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi51%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
Will Trump be impeached by...?
December 31, 202756%
YesNo
June 30, 202741%
YesNo
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3112%
YesNo
November 304%
YesNo
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Fed Decision in January?
No change74%
YesNo
25 bps increase24%
YesNo
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
1%chance
YesNo
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 3128%
YesNo
November 3020%
YesNo
Fed Decision in March?
25 bps increase52%
YesNo
No change42%
YesNo
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Pete Hegseth55%
YesNo
Susie Wiles49%
YesNo
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
3%chance
YesNo
JD Vance out as VP by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
30%chance
YesNo
US strike on Colombia by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China88%
YesNo
No meeting by December 3112%
YesNo
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
November 3092%
YesNo
December 3175%
YesNo
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190100%
YesNo
190-194<1%
YesNo
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
2%chance
YesNo
Trump impeached and removed before 2028?
24%chance
YesNo
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 3168%
YesNo
November 3038%
YesNo
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
5%chance
YesNo
Next Senate Majority Leader?
Chuck Schumer83%
YesNo
Chris Van Hollen11%
YesNo
How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
136%
YesNo
233%
YesNo
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 202795%
YesNo
US1%
YesNo
What will Trump say on November 4?
23%chance
YesNo
Who will Trump meet with by November 30?
Xi Jinping97%
YesNo
Vladimir Putin87%
YesNo
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
583%
YesNo
614%
YesNo
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1%chance
YesNo
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
88%chance
YesNo
Next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly23%
YesNo
Monica Crowley4%
YesNo
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
Ken Paxton40%
YesNo
Mark Carney10%
YesNo
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
3%chance
YesNo
Fed Decision in April?
No change56%
YesNo
25 bps increase20%
YesNo
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?
200+43%
YesNo
140-15914%
YesNo
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3157%
YesNo
Qatar15%
YesNo