China markets
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
9%chance
YesNo
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
88%chance
YesNo
Dem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?
Dem sweep; China not #187%
YesNo
Dem sweep; China #1 AI13%
YesNo
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of January?
Alibaba37%
YesNo
Moonshot24%
YesNo
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
72%chance
YesNo
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
14%chance
YesNo
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
Xiaomi37%
YesNo
Alibaba37%
YesNo
Best Chinese AI Company end of December?
Alibaba39%
YesNo
Xiaomi35%
YesNo
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
2%chance
YesNo
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun6%
YesNo
Wang Yi3%
YesNo
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
9%chance
YesNo
October Inflation China - Annual
0.7% to 0.8%51%
YesNo
0.9% to 1.0%28%
YesNo
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
17%chance
YesNo
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of January?
Alibaba36%
YesNo
Xiaomi28%
YesNo
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
4%chance
YesNo
US imposes new sanctions on China by...?
11%chance
YesNo
Will CCTV broadcast another Real Madrid match in 2026?
12%chance
YesNo
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
Alibaba33%
YesNo
Xiaomi32%
YesNo
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
1%chance
YesNo
Best Chinese AI Company end of January?
Xiaomi32%
YesNo
Alibaba31%
YesNo
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
Moonshot40%
YesNo
Alibaba26%
YesNo
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?
Alibaba39%
YesNo
Xiaomi23%
YesNo
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
16%chance
YesNo
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
6%chance
YesNo
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
4.6-4.9%53%
YesNo
4.3-4.6%44%
YesNo
China coup attempt by...?
December 31, 202712%
YesNo
December 31, 20262%
YesNo
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%61%
YesNo
1.1 – 1.5%22%
YesNo
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?
Moonshot31%
YesNo
Alibaba25%
YesNo
China x India military clash by...?
6%chance
YesNo
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
10%chance
YesNo
People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?
No Change90%
YesNo
Decrease8%
YesNo
US x China Military clash before 2027?
2%chance
YesNo
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#316%
YesNo
#16%
YesNo
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Hesai19%
YesNo
CXMT18%
YesNo
Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?
96%chance
YesNo
Jimmy Lai released by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
<1%chance
YesNo
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%96%
YesNo
5.0–6.0%2%
YesNo
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
DeepSeek26%
YesNo
Moonshot AI19%
YesNo
Lai Ching-te visits US by...?
June 3012%
YesNo
December 312%
YesNo
Will Trump visit any pandas in 2026?
17%chance
YesNo
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
5–15%90%
YesNo
15–25%8%
YesNo
Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?
3%chance
YesNo
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
2%chance
YesNo
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?
7%chance
YesNo