Iran markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 4100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3170%
YesNo
December 3144%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 598%
YesNo
November 693%
YesNo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%chance
YesNo
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
55%chance
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
YesNo
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202723%
YesNo
December 319%
YesNo
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3135%
YesNo
November 3019%
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
4%chance
YesNo
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 202720%
YesNo
December 318%
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3123%
YesNo
November 3014%
YesNo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 317%
YesNo
November 302%
YesNo
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202643%
YesNo
November 30, 202626%
YesNo
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
14%chance
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi59%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 318%
YesNo
November 304%
YesNo
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei92%
YesNo
No Head of State2%
YesNo