Brazil markets

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
30%chance
YesNo

Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems55%
YesNo
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems19%
YesNo

Bank of Brazil decision in December?
No Change82%
YesNo
25 bps decrease7%
YesNo

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by...?
June 30, 202828%
YesNo
December 31, 202723%
YesNo

Bank of Brazil Decision in January?
No Change53%
YesNo
25 bps decrease20%
YesNo

Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?
December 31, 202735%
YesNo
June 30, 202720%
YesNo

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
4%chance
YesNo

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?
No Change59%
YesNo
25 bps increase19%
YesNo

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
-0.3% to -0.1%41%
YesNo
<-0.3%35%
YesNo

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Ruas 20%+8%
YesNo
Ruas <5%7%
YesNo

Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Mauro Vieira31%
YesNo
Aloizio Mercadante30%
YesNo

Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?
Geraldo Alckmin36%
YesNo
Rafael Fonteles33%
YesNo

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%39%
YesNo
5.50-5.99%28%
YesNo

Next Brazilian Chief of Staff?
Camilo Santana49%
YesNo
Fernando Haddad17%
YesNo

Rain during the Brazilian Grand Prix?
76%chance
YesNo

Next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?
Camilo Santana34%
YesNo
Márcio França29%
YesNo

Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo

Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?
↑643%
YesNo
↑6.540%
YesNo

Brazil presidential election annulled?
3%chance
YesNo

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo

Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?
24%chance
YesNo

Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
9%chance
YesNo

Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?
Rui Costa31%
YesNo
Celso Amorim23%
YesNo

Brazil declares emergency rule in Brasília by January 31, 2027?
14%chance
YesNo

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
37%chance
YesNo

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?
31%chance
YesNo

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
Under 5%34%
YesNo
40% to 59.99%30%
YesNo

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?
85%chance
YesNo