Brazil markets

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

30%chance
YesNo
$189.3K Vol.

Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate

Lula, Eizenkot, Dems55%
YesNo
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems19%
YesNo
$552.4K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

No Change82%
YesNo
25 bps decrease7%
YesNo
$57.4K Vol.

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by...?

June 30, 202828%
YesNo
December 31, 202723%
YesNo
$27.2K Vol.

Bank of Brazil Decision in January?

No Change53%
YesNo
25 bps decrease20%
YesNo
$11.9K Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?

December 31, 202735%
YesNo
June 30, 202720%
YesNo
$29.3K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

4%chance
YesNo
$263.3K Vol.

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?

No Change59%
YesNo
25 bps increase19%
YesNo
$10.2K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

-0.3% to -0.1%41%
YesNo
<-0.3%35%
YesNo
$44.8K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+8%
YesNo
Ruas <5%7%
YesNo
$54.4K Vol.

Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Mauro Vieira31%
YesNo
Aloizio Mercadante30%
YesNo
$3.3K Vol.

Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

Geraldo Alckmin36%
YesNo
Rafael Fonteles33%
YesNo
$8.7K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%39%
YesNo
5.50-5.99%28%
YesNo
$201.2K Vol.

Next Brazilian Chief of Staff?

Camilo Santana49%
YesNo
Fernando Haddad17%
YesNo
$7.3K Vol.

Rain during the Brazilian Grand Prix?

76%chance
YesNo
$1.8K Vol.

Next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?

Camilo Santana34%
YesNo
Márcio França29%
YesNo
$2.4K Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?

3%chance
YesNo
$29.9K Vol.

Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?

↑643%
YesNo
↑6.540%
YesNo
$4.1K Vol.

Brazil presidential election annulled?

3%chance
YesNo
$53.7K Vol.

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

3%chance
YesNo
$105.3K Vol.

Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?

24%chance
YesNo
$5.1K Vol.

Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?

9%chance
YesNo
$3.1K Vol.

Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?

Rui Costa31%
YesNo
Celso Amorim23%
YesNo
$2K Vol.

Brazil declares emergency rule in Brasília by January 31, 2027?

14%chance
YesNo
$366 Vol.

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

37%chance
YesNo
$19K Vol.

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

31%chance
YesNo
$1K Vol.

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Under 5%34%
YesNo
40% to 59.99%30%
YesNo
$15.8K Vol.

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

85%chance
YesNo