U.S. x Iran markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3170%
YesNo
December 3144%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 599%
YesNo
November 694%
YesNo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%chance
YesNo
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3135%
YesNo
November 3019%
YesNo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 317%
YesNo
November 302%
YesNo
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3123%
YesNo
November 3015%
YesNo
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202643%
YesNo
November 30, 202626%
YesNo
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi51%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)16%
YesNo
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14%
YesNo
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
3%chance
YesNo
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
9%chance
YesNo
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202690%
YesNo
December8%
YesNo
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3157%
YesNo
Qatar15%
YesNo
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
December 3139%
YesNo
November 3024%
YesNo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
8%chance
YesNo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
5%chance
YesNo
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
9%chance
YesNo
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
36%chance
YesNo
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
11%chance
YesNo
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
7%chance
YesNo
US military draft authorized in 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?
10%chance
YesNo
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
7%chance
YesNo
Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?
7%chance
YesNo
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
2%chance
YesNo