Peace Deal markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3170%
YesNo
December 3144%
YesNo
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3135%
YesNo
November 3019%
YesNo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 317%
YesNo
November 302%
YesNo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202643%
YesNo
November 30, 202626%
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi51%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 3128%
YesNo
November 3020%
YesNo
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)16%
YesNo
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14%
YesNo
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
UAE95%
YesNo
No Talks by December 31, 20273%
YesNo
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
9%chance
YesNo
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3157%
YesNo
Qatar15%
YesNo
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 202734%
YesNo
June 30, 202721%
YesNo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
8%chance
YesNo
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
30%chance
YesNo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
December 3131%
YesNo
November 3017%
YesNo
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
36%chance
YesNo
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 3115%
YesNo
December 316%
YesNo
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
12%chance
YesNo
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
7%chance
YesNo
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
3%chance
YesNo