Israel x Iran markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 4100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 599%
YesNo
November 694%
YesNo
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3123%
YesNo
November 3015%
YesNo
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi51%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3128%
YesNo
November 3013%
YesNo
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3157%
YesNo
Qatar15%
YesNo
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 202734%
YesNo
June 30, 202721%
YesNo
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
January 31, 202765%
YesNo
December 31, 202642%
YesNo
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
479%
YesNo
512%
YesNo
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
47%chance
YesNo
Houthi military action against Israel by...?
18%chance
YesNo
Israel military action against Beirut by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
11%chance
YesNo
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
3%chance
YesNo
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 3115%
YesNo
December 316%
YesNo
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
12%chance
YesNo
Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?
63%chance
YesNo
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
14%chance
YesNo
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
38%chance
YesNo
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
17%chance
YesNo
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
12%chance
YesNo
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
2%chance
YesNo