Iran Ceasefire markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 4100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3170%
YesNo
December 3144%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 599%
YesNo
November 694%
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
4%chance
YesNo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 317%
YesNo
November 302%
YesNo
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3123%
YesNo
November 3015%
YesNo
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202643%
YesNo
November 30, 202626%
YesNo
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi51%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3128%
YesNo
November 3013%
YesNo
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3157%
YesNo
Qatar15%
YesNo
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 202734%
YesNo
June 30, 202721%
YesNo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
8%chance
YesNo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
November 3084%
YesNo
November 1559%
YesNo
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
36%chance
YesNo
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
7%chance
YesNo
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
11%chance
YesNo
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Israel military action against Syria by...?
December 3131%
YesNo
November 3017%
YesNo
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?
63%chance
YesNo
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
12%chance
YesNo
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
2%chance
YesNo