Iran markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 4100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3170%
YesNo
December 3144%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 599%
YesNo
November 694%
YesNo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%chance
YesNo
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
55%chance
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
YesNo
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202723%
YesNo
December 319%
YesNo
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3135%
YesNo
November 3019%
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
4%chance
YesNo
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 202720%
YesNo
December 318%
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 317%
YesNo
November 302%
YesNo
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3123%
YesNo
November 3015%
YesNo
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202643%
YesNo
November 30, 202626%
YesNo
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem Gharibabadi51%
YesNo
Steve Witkoff39%
YesNo
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 318%
YesNo
November 303%
YesNo
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei92%
YesNo
No Head of State2%
YesNo
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 3128%
YesNo
November 3020%
YesNo
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3128%
YesNo
November 3013%
YesNo
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)16%
YesNo
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14%
YesNo
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
3%chance
YesNo
Iran Nuke before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
9%chance
YesNo
Saudi airspace closed by...?
10%chance
YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
2%chance
YesNo
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202690%
YesNo
December8%
YesNo
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
3%chance
YesNo
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3157%
YesNo
Qatar15%
YesNo
Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
December 3128%
YesNo
November 307%
YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
11%chance
YesNo
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
December 3139%
YesNo
November 3024%
YesNo
Houthis target Pakistan by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 202734%
YesNo
June 30, 202721%
YesNo
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
January 31, 202765%
YesNo
December 31, 202642%
YesNo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
<1%chance
YesNo
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 202720%
YesNo
December 31, 20267%
YesNo
Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?
December 3133%
YesNo
October 311%
YesNo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
8%chance
YesNo
European military action against Iran by...?
December 317%
YesNo
October 311%
YesNo
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
6%chance
YesNo
Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 3116%
YesNo
November 306%
YesNo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
5%chance
YesNo
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
9%chance
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
21%chance
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
14%chance
YesNo
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
2.5 - 3.0M38%
YesNo
3.0 - 3.5M22%
YesNo