Middle East markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31100%
YesNo
November 2100%
YesNo
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot56%
YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu30%
YesNo
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 599%
YesNo
November 694%
YesNo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%chance
YesNo
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Gadi Eizenkot97%
YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu3%
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
Netanyahu out by...?
June 30, 202746%
YesNo
March 31, 202738%
YesNo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 317%
YesNo
November 302%
YesNo
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
13%chance
YesNo
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei92%
YesNo
No Head of State2%
YesNo
Iran Nuke before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
November 3092%
YesNo
December 3175%
YesNo
Saudi airspace closed by...?
10%chance
YesNo
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
2%chance
YesNo
Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
November 697%
YesNo
November 789%
YesNo
Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
December 3128%
YesNo
November 307%
YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
11%chance
YesNo
Houthis target Pakistan by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela6%
YesNo
Lebanon6%
YesNo
Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?
No government formed46%
YesNo
Other23%
YesNo
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
January 31, 202765%
YesNo
December 31, 202642%
YesNo
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 202720%
YesNo
December 31, 20267%
YesNo
Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?
December 3133%
YesNo
October 311%
YesNo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
8%chance
YesNo
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
6%chance
YesNo
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
No Next Minister by Feb 2842%
YesNo
Yair Lapid25%
YesNo
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
30%chance
YesNo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
5%chance
YesNo
Dem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?
Dem sweep; No Phase II92%
YesNo
Dem sweep; Phase II deal5%
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
21%chance
YesNo
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
14%chance
YesNo
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
2.5 - 3.0M38%
YesNo
3.0 - 3.5M22%
YesNo
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
No Next Minister by Feb 2839%
YesNo
Avigdor Lieberman8%
YesNo
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
December 3131%
YesNo
November 3017%
YesNo
Next Israeli Minister of Interior?
No Next Minister by Feb 2848%
YesNo
Yoram Cohen22%
YesNo
NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?
5%chance
YesNo
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland11%
YesNo
Jordan7%
YesNo
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken99%
YesNo
Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds<1%
YesNo
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
3%chance
YesNo
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
No Next Minister by Feb 2844%
YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot14%
YesNo
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
479%
YesNo
512%
YesNo
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
4%chance
YesNo
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 3111%
YesNo
November 305%
YesNo
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
October 595%
YesNo
October 495%
YesNo
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
November 3084%
YesNo
November 1559%
YesNo
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
December 3126%
YesNo
November 3022%
YesNo
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
November 3068%
YesNo
November 1543%
YesNo
Will Iran target Oman by...?
December 3110%
YesNo
November 307%
YesNo
USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?
November 3097%
YesNo
November 1564%
YesNo