Science markets
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
2%chance
YesNo
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX68%
YesNo
Anthropic31%
YesNo
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 202756%
YesNo
December 31, 202612%
YesNo
New pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
YesNo
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
November 30, 202689%
YesNo
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?78%
YesNo
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202830%
YesNo
December 31, 202718%
YesNo
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202768%
YesNo
September 30, 202737%
YesNo
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑5k100%
YesNo
↑5.5k97%
YesNo
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...?
June 3027%
YesNo
December 315%
YesNo
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
081%
YesNo
114%
YesNo
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
3%chance
YesNo
How many US births in 2026?
3.56M–3.59M40%
YesNo
3.53M–3.56M37%
YesNo
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 202731%
YesNo
June 30, 202715%
YesNo
Precipitation in Hong Kong in November?
60-95mm38%
YesNo
25-35mm27%
YesNo
PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?
November 15, 202659%
YesNo
November 30, 202647%
YesNo
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<579%
YesNo
5-621%
YesNo
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by...?
June 3091%
YesNo
December 3187%
YesNo
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15976%
YesNo
120-13920%
YesNo
Precipitation in Seattle in November?
5-5.75"44%
YesNo
>7.75"28%
YesNo
November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest94%
YesNo
2nd hottest7%
YesNo
Precipitation in London in November?
<30mm39%
YesNo
50-60mm38%
YesNo
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
20 to 3474%
YesNo
35 to 4924%
YesNo
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
10%chance
YesNo
Human moon landing in 2026?
<1%chance
YesNo
Plague pandemic in 2026?
1%chance
YesNo
Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?
5000+99%
YesNo
5600+83%
YesNo
Precipitation in Seoul in November?
30-45mm50%
YesNo
55-65mm43%
YesNo
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
June 30, 2027?76%
YesNo
March 31, 202754%
YesNo
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
Ramsey Number R(5,5)25%
YesNo
Hodge Conjecture20%
YesNo
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
28%chance
YesNo
How many SpaceX launches in November 2026?
<1392%
YesNo
138%
YesNo
Plague declared public health emergency by...?
December 312%
YesNo
November 30<1%
YesNo
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
9%chance
YesNo
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 202767%
YesNo
December 31, 202619%
YesNo
Precipitation in NYC in November?
2-3"44%
YesNo
<2"38%
YesNo
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
51.0+90%
YesNo
51.5+52%
YesNo
Plague case in US by December 31?
3%chance
YesNo
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
6%chance
YesNo
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
6%chance
YesNo
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
No solution by Dec 31, 202734%
YesNo
Yang-Mills19%
YesNo
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
54%OpenAI
OpenAIAnthropic
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202840%
YesNo
December 31, 202714%
YesNo
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 202728%
YesNo
December 31, 202611%
YesNo
Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?
11%chance
YesNo
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
46%chance
YesNo
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
December 31, 202711%
YesNo
December 31, 20262%
YesNo
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
14%chance
YesNo
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
77%chance
YesNo
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
4%chance
YesNo
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
82%SpaceX
SpaceXOpenAI