Fed Rates markets
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase78%
YesNo
No change22%
YesNo
Fed Decision in January?
No change74%
YesNo
25 bps increase24%
YesNo
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)98%
YesNo
1 (25 bps)<1%
YesNo
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
78%chance
YesNo
Fed Decision in March?
25 bps increase52%
YesNo
No change42%
YesNo
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%21%
YesNo
5.5%7%
YesNo
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.65%86%
YesNo
Below 4.60%71%
YesNo
Fed Decision in April?
No change56%
YesNo
25 bps increase20%
YesNo
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.25%92%
YesNo
Below 5.20%73%
YesNo
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause75%
YesNo
Pause-Pause-Hike13%
YesNo
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?
Below 4.82%57%
YesNo
Below 4.79%51%
YesNo
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.75%73%
YesNo
4.80%60%
YesNo
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike78%
YesNo
Hike–Pause–Pause20%
YesNo
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.9%99%
YesNo
Below 4.8%70%
YesNo
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.90%64%
YesNo
5.00%42%
YesNo
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%75%
YesNo
4.0%20%
YesNo
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting51%
YesNo
April 2027 Meeting50%
YesNo
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in November?
5.06%43%
YesNo
5.09%40%
YesNo
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%56%
YesNo
5.50%55%
YesNo
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?
5.69%51%
YesNo
5.42%46%
YesNo
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?
Below 5.20%64%
YesNo
Below 5.05%61%
YesNo
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%77%
YesNo
↓ 0.25%2%
YesNo
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?
4.83%63%
YesNo
4.87%50%
YesNo
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%65%
YesNo
Below 4.40%46%
YesNo
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
Below 4.56%50%
YesNo
Below 4.53%49%
YesNo
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November?
4.68%71%
YesNo
4.72%59%
YesNo
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in November?
Below 4.44%53%
YesNo
Below 4.41%36%
YesNo
Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?
15%chance
YesNo
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?
December 317%
YesNo
November 301%
YesNo
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?
4.25%31%
YesNo
4.5%30%
YesNo
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
2%chance
YesNo
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
4%chance
YesNo
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
071%
YesNo
212%
YesNo
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
057%
YesNo
122%
YesNo
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
9%chance
YesNo
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
1%chance
YesNo
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
2%chance
YesNo